According to The Australian Financial Review, Australian coal export sales will fall faster than expected because higher volumes over the next two years will not be enough to offset a 46 per cent collapse in shipment values, official forecasts show.
The value of thermal coal exports is expected to fall from $66 billion to $28 billion in the 12 months to the end of June 2025, almost 7 per cent below previous forecasts. Metallurgical coal will fall from $62 billion to $41 billion in that time.
Economists at the Department of Industry, Science and Resources earlier this year predicted that the value of commodity exports would slump over the next two years, as weaker demand brought prices down. Those forecasts have been tempered slightly in their latest analysis, with solid growth in export volumes delivering more than was expected just three months ago.
The value of Australian commodity exports in 2025 is now projected to be $352 billion, up from the June prediction of $344 billion.
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