According to The Australian Financial review, Australia needs $115 billion in capital to build enough new homes over the next four years to simply keep vacancy rates steady and not worsen, as the country’s chronic undersupply and rising population drive the next development boom, non-bank lender Qualitas says.
With the country needing an estimated 300,000 new homes – or 75,000 a year – over the next four years just to keep vacancy rates constant, that was the required capital, based on a median unit value of $638,000 and a loan-to-value ratio of 60 per cent, Qualitas boss Andrew Schwartz said.
According to The Australian Financial Review, distressed listings jumped sharply in pockets of Brisbane and Sydney over the past 12 months, with up to one in five homes listed under distressed conditions amid signs home owners could be struggling to meet their mortgage repayments, new data shows.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said distressed selling and mortgage delinquencies could start to rise strongly in the coming months if interest rates stayed at their current level this year.
According to The Australian Financial Review, house prices in inner-ring suburbs in capital cities are poised to outperform this year, fuelled by wealthy home buyers and those who gained large amounts of equity during the pandemic boom, experts say.
Buyers who are receiving financial and practical support from families, an emerging force in those markets, could also drive prices higher.
Jarden chief economist Carlos Cacho said this pool of buyers would continue to dominate the housing market until interest rates fell.
“I think until we see rate cuts, the market will remain driven by higher-income or wealthy buyers,” he said.
“Given these buyers are generally concentrated in the inner-ring suburbs, it probably means those areas will continue to outperform.
According to The Australian Financial Review, house prices could jump about 10 per cent nationwide this year and borrowing capacity could rise by the same amount because of the combined effect of lower interest rates and income tax cuts, experts said.
Jarden chief economist Carlos Cacho said house prices were still expected to rise this year, even without a rate cut, but a decline in borrowing costs could fuel larger gains.
“Our forecast is for prices to rise by around 5 per cent this year without a rate cut, so this would suggest that price growth could increase closer to 10 per cent, rather than our 5 per cent expectation.”
According to The Australian Financial Review, Sydney units could outperform those in other capitals over the next decade as affordability worsens and new approvals shrink, after lagging the capital gains made in Melbourne’s unit market over the past two decades.
Sydney is already recording the most significant value differential between the median house and units value, with houses attracting a record high premium of 67.8 per cent over units based on the median value in December 2023, according to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director.
According to The Australian Financial review, national home values hit a record high on Wednesday after jumping 8.1 per cent from their trough earlier this year and recouping all losses of the recent downturn, according to CoreLogic’s daily home value index.
After an unexpectedly short, but sharp slump, values recovered despite rapid interest rate rises and gloomy sentiment, pushing house prices in one in three suburbs nationwide to new record highs as of October 31, while three in 10 unit markets hit new peaks, the data provider said.
According to The Australian Financial Review, new apartment sales on the booming Gold Coast more than doubled over the September quarter. The surge came as a swath of cashed-up local and interstate buyers pounced on the larger luxury residences that have become the post-COVID-19 staple of the coastal city market.
Quarterly data from research house Urbis shows 470 unit sales over July, August and September, a 135 per cent increase on the 200 sales recorded over the June quarter.
According to The Australian Financial Review, the Reserve Bank’s 13th cash rate increase this cycle will dent the pace of price growth but not trigger a decline in housing prices in a vastly undersupplied market, economist said.
The RBA’s decision to raise the cash rate – as widely expected – by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35 per cent would likely prompt a pause in the pace of dwelling price growth as the country had seen after the first increases in May last year, but it would not last, PEXA chief economist Julie Toth said.
According to The Australian Financial Review, national home values rose by 0.9 per cent in October, accelerating slightly from the 0.7 per cent gain last month, and edging closer to full recovery from the recent downturn, CoreLogic’s home value index shows.
House prices across most of the capital cities also increased during the month, but the quarterly pace of growth had slowed substantially as downside risks emerged, said Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director.
Over the past three months to October, home values across the combined capital cities lifted by 2.6 per cent, which is slower than the 3.7 per cent recorded over the June quarter.
According to The Australian Financial Review, house prices in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth are predicted to climb by about 12 per cent this year, fuelled by the lingering supply shortfall and increased demand, according to an upgraded forecast by NAB.
The rosier prediction comes as expectations for a housing market recovery over the next few years by property professionals strengthen, with confidence levels hitting their highest levels in about two years.
NAB has substantially upgraded its house price predictions from the previous quarter and now expects house prices across the combined capital cities to rise by 8 per cent this year and a further 5 per cent by 2024.
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