Confidence in Australian property and construction is still upbeat but less optimistic than in recent quarters
According to The Australian Financial Review today, the key property players – investors, developers, contractors and consultants – expect growth in house prices and housing starts to wane, based on the latest ANZ/Property Council Survey.
ANZ senior economist David Cannington said the survey showed a significant shift in outlook for residential property.
"The property sector expects the growth to disappear over the next 12 months," he said.
"You are seeing the impact of [the July] changes to investor lending … and the APRA announcements on risk weighting … This would be the first survey to pick it up."
The chief executive of the Property Council, Ken Morrison, said "the economy has relied on strong housing construction, so any softening would have a broader national impact particularly in terms of jobs and economic activity."
However he noted staffing expectations had risen marginally and "things still look pretty good within the confines of most property companies."
The ANZ expects housing starts to peak at 215,000 in the year to December and ease back to a still elevated 200,000 by end of 2016.
ANZ's co-head of Australian economics, Cherelle Murphy, said "without anything backing up, you get a dire outlook for the economy in 2016 and 2017".
Based on that outlook, the ANZ predicts two more cuts, in February and May, which will take the cash rate to just 1.5 per cent.
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